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In terms of crude oil, the implementation of OPEC production cuts, US shale oil production, the Fed’s interest rate policy, and Trump’s immigration ban are the key factors affecting oil prices. It is expected that oil prices will continue to fluctuate upward in the next stage, but the upside is limited. Estimate 2 The average monthly price is around US$57/barrel, and between March and April it is US$55 to US$61/barrel.
In respect of refined oil, domestic refined oil consumption maintained a low growth rate in January, and it is expected that market demand will rebound steadily from February to March.
In terms of chemicals, the price of naphtha continued to rise in February. After the holiday period, demand gradually recovered and prices of most products rose. The gross profit of polyolefins remained flat month-on-month. Gross margin of other products was better than that of January. It is expected that the prices of polyolefins will increase in March-April, and the prices of synthetic fibers and raw materials will first fall and then rise, and rubber prices will fall.
Crude oil: price shocks rise
In January, the average price of Brent crude oil futures was 55.45 US dollars / barrel, up 23.52 US dollars / barrel, an increase of 73.7%, a slight increase of 0.53 US dollars / barrel, a rate of 1%; WTI crude oil futures average price of 52.61 US dollars / The barrel, which was up by US$20.83/barrel over the same period of last year, was 65.6%, up by US$0.44/barrel compared with the previous month, which was 0.8%.
Looking back at the situation in January, despite the fact that oil-producing countries have implemented agreements to reduce production and caused oil prices to rise temporarily, US refined oil inventories have increased sharply, and some short-term funds have stopped trading. This has led to a reduction in net long positions, and the oil price has soared. High down.
In the middle of the year, profit-taking pressure was released, plus the news was positive and the negative factors basically offset. The overall impact was neutral, and the long and short sides entered a short-term stagnation phase.
In the latter half of the year, US President Trump introduced controversial administrative orders such as immigration bans, financial supervision, and advancement of oil pipelines, raising concerns about potential risks in global financial markets. However, the price of oil remains weak and volatile.
In the end, Brent oil prices closed at $55.7 per barrel on January 31, down $1.12 per barrel from the December 2016 closing price of $56.82 per barrel. The first month of Brent crude oil futures prices generally showed a sideways turbulence and the average monthly price rose.
In January, the price difference between WTI and Brent was within a range of 2.26 to 3.22 US dollars/barrel in a narrow range. The monthly average price difference was inverted at 2.84 US dollars/barrel, which was basically the same as the average monthly difference between December and 2.75 US dollars/barrel.
In the next two or three months, the major oil-producing countries will reduce their overall output better than expected; supply and demand rebalancing will proceed in an orderly manner; the Fed’s pace of interest rate hikes will have the indication of a further slowdown; the US dollar index will draw back in depth; immigration bans will reappear between the United States and Arab countries. With the cracks, the increased geopolitical risk in the Middle East may become a factor supporting the rise in oil prices.
On the other hand, the uncertainty from the United States has increased, the number of oil rigs has continued to increase, the level of inventories has continued to rise, and the construction or speeding up of oil and gas pipelines in the United States. The cost of shale oil transportation in the main producing areas has been reduced, all of which have suppressed the formation of oil prices. The fact that Iraq, Russia, and other countries have reduced production intensity slightly behind other oil-producing countries may weaken the positive impact of the production cuts.
Based on this, the Brent crude oil futures price in February is currently judged to continue to fluctuate with the decline of the US dollar index and the agreement on production cuts. The fluctuation range is 55-60 dollars per barrel, and the average monthly price is around 57 dollars per barrel. This is higher than January; it is expected to be 55-61 US dollars/barrel in March-April.
Chemicals: Profit Space Continues to Shrink
The slight increase in crude oil prices drove the price of naphtha to continue to rise, and the prices of ethylene and propylene also rose. Excluding the drop in prices of polyolefins and polyesters, prices of other products rose, but gross margins of most products fell. It is expected that the gross profit of polyolefins will remain flat in February, and the gross profit of synthetic fibers and raw materials and synthetic rubber products will be better than in January.
In January, both the China Petrochemical Chemical Product Price Index (CPPI) and the naphtha price index both rose, but the naphtha price index showed a larger increase. It is estimated that from February to March, both indices will rise and fall first, and the profitability of chemical products will increase. Continue to shrink.
The average price of naphtha (Singapore imports) rose by 51.4% year-on-year, up by 8.2% month-on-month; the market prices of ethylene and propylene rose by 0.6% and 2.5% respectively, which was up 17% and 51.2% year-on-year respectively.
In the international market, except for LDPE (Linear Low Density Polyethylene) prices, prices of other products have risen to varying degrees; other chemical products prices have risen across the board compared to the same period of the previous year, in which the price of synthetic rubber has risen more than 1 times. In the domestic market, with the exception of the prices of polyolefins and polyesters that fell in the chain, the prices of other petrochemical products all increased; all prices rose sharply year-on-year, and the price of synthetic rubber rose by about two times.
Although the prices of most chemical products increased month-on-month, they were mainly driven by the increase in raw material prices. In addition to the year-on-year improvement in ethylene glycol and styrene-butadiene rubber prices in the gross profit situation, the gross profit of other products was different from that in December 2016. The degree of decline.
As a whole, the price of crude oil in February will rise slightly from the previous month, and the naphtha price will also rise steadily, which will drive most chemical products to rise. The gross profit level of chemical products will be flat or slightly better compared to January.
By category, polyolefins, due to the normal production of petrochemical enterprises during the holiday season, but the majority of downstream processing companies shut down, resulting in high inventory of raw materials companies, coupled with a larger increase in imports before the holiday, the port inventory in a five-year high. At present, large-scale plastic processing enterprises have started construction, and small and medium-sized processing enterprises have started work after the Lantern Festival, and overall demand has slowly recovered.
As of February 10, futures have shown a rising market, affecting the spot price trend. It is estimated that with the rise in crude oil prices and the recovery of downstream demand, the polyolefin price in February was stable and then rose. The average price was slightly higher than in January. 3 From April to April prices continued to rise.
In terms of synthetic fiber and raw materials, due to the low demand in foreign markets, the cumulative export volume of China's textile and apparel products decreased by 7.5% in 2016 compared with 2015. Among them, the value of textile and apparel exports in December was 23.44 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 12.8%. The annual textile industry increased. The value tends to be flat, with a growth rate of 5.5%, which is lower than the national average of 6%.
Taking into account the gradual recovery of trading and production by traders and manufacturers after the end of the Spring Festival holiday, it is expected that the average price of synthetic fiber and raw materials will rise upwards in February, decline in March, and rebound in April.
In respect of synthetic rubber, the start-up load of domestic enterprises in January decreased slightly, and some of the devices were still in a state of shutdown or low-load operation. At present, the domestic equipment load is mostly between 50% and 80%, and the Tianjin Lugang and other parking facilities have not been restarted. It is expected that the domestic load of the synthetic rubber production enterprises will increase slightly in the previous month.
In terms of downstream demand, the domestic automobile production and sales in December 2016 and the whole year increased year-on-year and the year-on-year increase, which spurred steady growth in demand for rubber. The start-up load of domestic tire companies is still at a relatively high level. In January, the operating rate in the Shandong region was 79.3%, which was the same as that in December 2016. However, the U.S. release of the "double reverse" final result of the export of tires for Chinese buses and truck tires will have a longer-term negative impact on domestic demand for rubber.
Thailand suffered serious floods, and natural rubber production is expected to decrease. Therefore, the domestic market futures price rose slightly. Recently, the price of butadiene has risen sharply and has formed strong support for the price of synthetic rubber. In the short term, this supporting role will continue. However, the wide spread between natural rubber and rubber will adversely affect the demand for synthetic rubber.
It is expected that the average price of synthetic rubber in February will increase. Due to the recent surge in the price of synthetic rubber, the operating pressure in the downstream processing industry has increased. At the same time, raw material butadiene has also squeezed the profit margin of synthetic rubber production, and there is a demand for price adjustment in the industrial chain. It is expected that the production will take place from March to April. Rubber prices may decline.
Refined oil: "Changwang Chai pale" features
According to the National Development and Reform Commission's caliber estimates, domestic refined oil consumption in January was 24.3 million tons, an increase of 3.1% year-on-year, of which gasoline increased by 2.8%, aviation coal increased by 13.8%, and diesel increased by 1.3%. Consumption of diesel was lower than the average daily rate by 1.13. 2.8%.
In January, the domestic macroeconomic operation remained stable. China's manufacturing PMI released by the National Bureau of Statistics was 51.3%. Although it was 0.1% lower than the previous month, it remained above 51% for 4 consecutive months and maintained steady growth. It is estimated that the sales volume of automobiles will be 2.7 million units, an increase of 8% year-on-year, and the year-on-year increase will be reduced due to the advance purchase overdraft caused by the 2017 automobile purchase tax policy adjustment. Among them, passenger cars still maintain a growth rate of more than 10%, and commercial vehicles continue to slump.
In terms of gasoline, due to the continued high sales of passenger vehicles, coupled with the peak of returning home for the Spring Festival to stimulate private car travel, consumption peaked. In terms of diesel, due to the high haze in northern China, strict restrictions were imposed and work stoppages were introduced across the country. As the Chinese New Year holiday approached, the number of business suspensions and vacations increased and the consumption contracted. In the aviation coal industry, the Spring Festival peak brought about a hot market. The sales growth of China National Aviation Industry and Aviation Coal increased by 1.2% compared with December 2016.
In the refined oil market in January, the total number of hidden resources was relatively large. According to the data, the output of 42 Shandong refineries produced about 5.2 million tons of oil, an average daily decrease of 5.8% from the previous month, and a year-on-year increase of 3%. It can be seen that although the production of ground refining slowed slightly, it still maintained growth.
At the same time, the import of hidden resources has increased substantially. In January, the import of mixed aromatics for blending gasoline exceeded 1 million tons, and the import of light-cycle oil for blending diesel was close to 500,000 tons, which doubled year-on-year. These hidden resources continue to reduce the apparent consumption of the market.
At the end of the Spring Festival holiday in early February, visits to friends and relatives decreased, private car travel resumed normal, and gasoline consumption fell back. However, as of February 10, there was no significant improvement in diesel consumption.
According to the analysis, the overall economic situation is still low and the post-holiday industrial and mining enterprises are not optimistic about the start of construction. Second, the measures to limit production, restrictions, and suspensions in some provinces and cities in North China continue to persist, restraining vehicle oil, such as 7 major cities in Hebei Province. The line-limit and suspension measures will continue until March 15; Third, after the diesel quality upgrade, the spread of genuine diesel, non-standard diesel and smuggled diesel will widen, unfair competition will intensify, and the suppression of genuine diesel consumption will increase.
After entering March, the festive characteristics will be completely eliminated, and gasoline demand will drop. Industrial and mining enterprises and logistics and transportation industries will return to normal. However, given the short-term economic trend or continuing sluggishness, it is expected that the project will be at a weaker level.
Judging from the current situation, domestic vehicle sales in February and March were around 1.7 million and 2.45 million, respectively, which were approximately 8% and flat, respectively, year-on-year. The increase was still mainly from passenger vehicles, supporting the demand for gasoline.
The apparent domestic demand for refined oil in February is expected to be around 22 million tons, an increase of 5.3% year-on-year, with an average daily average over the previous month, and a diesel/gasoline ratio of around 0.83. In March, the apparent demand for refined oil in China was around 25 million tons, up by 2.2% year-on-year. %, average daily growth of 2.6%, the ratio of diesel to 1.11.
In the first month of 2017, the petrochemical market was intertwined, crude oil prices fluctuated upwards, and naphtha prices increased, driving up prices of downstream products, but the profitability of the latter was squeezed.