China's refined oil products ushered in the first price cut during the year. At about 17:00 on May 9th, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on the official website saying that from 0:00 on May 10, the price of gasoline and diesel will be lowered to 8,850 yuan / ton and 8020 yuan / ton, respectively, with a range of 330 yuan / Tons and 310 yuan / ton. This is a seven-month period after the relevant state departments have again lowered the price of refined oil, which is the largest reduction since 2009.
If this price reduction is converted to the price of a retail gas station, the No. 90 gasoline and No. 0 diesel oil will be reduced by 0.24 yuan / liter and 0.26 yuan / liter respectively. In other words, the No. 93 gasoline in Shanghai and Southwest China will return to the “7th era”, but the No. 97 gasoline is still above 8 yuan/liter. In Beijing, Guangzhou and other cities, in addition to gas stations that are selling at reduced prices, gasoline No. 93 and No. 97 will maintain more than 8 yuan / liter.
Price adjustment conditions have been prepared
On February 8 and March 20 this year, the National Development and Reform Commission raised the price of refined oil twice. However, since the round of price increases on March 20, the international oil price has shown a downward trend. Especially in the past two weeks, the Brent oil price in the North Sea, which is closely related to the price adjustment of Chinese refined oil products, has dropped significantly.
This has filled the market with all kinds of expectations for price cuts. For example, in order to complete the sales of refined oil products, Sinopec on May 4 was quite rare to adjust the regional allocation price.
Five days after Sinopec's “preheating” on May 4, the National Development and Reform Commission finally lowered the price of refined oil as expected by the market. "This is expected." Zhu Qing, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, told the International Finance News reporter that "As of May 8, the average price of crude oil in Brent, Dubai and Cinta was $112.68 per barrel. The average moving price for 22 consecutive days was US$118.92/barrel. After conversion, the rate of change of the three places was -4.35%, which finally reached the 4% and 22-day price adjustment 'red line' stipulated by the National Development and Reform Commission."
Not only Zhuo Chuang Information, according to the statistics of the newspaper, the latest three crude oils monitored by market institutions such as Treasure Island, Zhongyu Information, Xiwang Energy and Longzhong Information are all around -4%, 4.09%, 4.24 respectively. %, 4.01% and 4.32%. Among them, Xiwang Energy believes that "according to the current pricing mechanism, the National Development and Reform Commission did not take a lagging action on price adjustment, that is, the first day of the price adjustment window to reduce the maximum retail price limit for refined oil."
Guarantee oil profit
For the first price cut during the year, some consumers seem to be dissatisfied. They still think that it is “up and down”. A car owner said to the newspaper that "after the price cut, the price of Shanghai No. 93 gasoline has returned to the level before March 20. But compared with last year, it is still more than 3 hairs per liter."
In this regard, Zhuo Chuang information analyst Liu Feng said, "If you do not cut prices on May 9, the rate of change of crude oil in the three places will still move to negative values, and reach below -5% this weekend. At that time, if the price adjustment, The decline may be between RMB 400/ton and RMB 500/ton."
"But such a rapid price adjustment, on the one hand, reflects the integration with international oil prices, that is, the oil price has been lowered just after the conditions are met; on the other hand, it can be understood as reducing the price adjustment in disguise to ensure the refining profits of Sinopec and PetroChina. Liu Feng explained further.
However, the National Development and Reform Commission explained that “Since 2009, oil price volatility in the international market has intensified, although there has been a rise and fall, but the overall trend has been oscillating. According to the current mechanism, the trend of domestic refined oil prices is also rising. In this sense Domestic oil prices will inevitably 'rise more and fall less.'"
"For example, the recent two oil price adjustments, the three crude oil prices in the international market referenced by the domestic refined oil price adjustment on March 20 increased by more than 10%, and the domestic refined oil price should be raised by about 700 yuan according to the mechanism (actually only increased by 600). Yuan). The National Development and Reform Commission said, "After the international market, oil prices fluctuated downwards. As of May 9, the decline was only 4%. According to the price mechanism, the price of gasoline and diesel was lowered by 330 yuan and 310 yuan per ton respectively."
New mechanism not launched
From the impact point of view, Zhongyu Information Market analyst Sang Wei said that "oil price cuts will benefit transportation, warehousing, postal, industrial and agricultural timber and fishery construction and wholesale, retail, accommodation and catering industries."
At the same time, however, the industry's expectations have once again failed – the National Development and Reform Commission has not yet issued a document on pricing system reforms while cutting prices. In this regard, Zhongyu Information analyst Gao Chengsha believes that from the perspective of the existing domestic and international environment - the international oil price continues to decline, the domestic oil price is lowered for the first time in the year, etc., the introduction of new oil product mechanism "just in time." Gao Chengsha believes that although this time did not follow the current round of price cuts, the second quarter is indeed a "better period."
However, the National Development and Reform Commission official has never given a very clear timetable. “The overall goal of the new pricing mechanism is to steadily push forward the reform of the refined oil price mechanism. This means that 'stable progress is the most important direction, and the most important one is precisely 'stable'.” Lu Bin, an information analyst, believes.
The industry believes that the premise of "stable" is to look at the face of international oil prices. However, in the medium and long term, if the situation in Iran is not resolved one day, it may become a promoter of the rapid rise in international oil prices, which is not conducive to the advancement of reform.

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