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The change in the price of long-term crude oil futures, which has changed the status of the premium contract on the spot market, has been maintained at a premium level recently, and the price is generally above US$58. This shows that the market’s views on this year and next year have been highly consistent. The IEA expects world demand growth to remain at 1.78 million barrels in 2005, and the global remaining capacity will be less than 2 million barrels. Therefore, the relationship between crude oil supply and demand in the second half of the year and 2006 will be more severely tested. As the problem of refining capacity constraints on the supply of refined oil is likely to appear this winter, long-term crude oil supply and short-term product demand problems constitute the basis for a strong oil price.
Singapore Fuel Oil has revised its price relationship with crude oil in the previous period. The spread between cash and Dubai has been extended from US$8.85 in early June to US$11.11. This means that fuel oil is unlikely to ignore the increase in crude oil, and there is a great chance of following up on the rise in crude oil in the future. In this way, the risk of a correction in previous Singapore prices is actually largely resolved. This is also the reason why new funds are bought in the near future. According to the current import price conversion, the domestic cost price is already close to 3,000 yuan. Although the stagflation in the spot reflects the weakness of domestic demand, if the rising cost of imports will allow domestic prices to go up passively without room for manoeuvre. It is expected that more fuel power plants will reduce the power generation load to reduce losses, but they are powerless to stabilize prices. The situation of straight-run oil has improved recently, and the operating rate of refineries has picked up. However, the supply is relatively abundant. It is estimated that prices will not rise significantly.
Shanghai's fuel prices maintained a good uptrend, mainly waiting for the spot start signal, while forward contracts quickly completed close to the spot monthly contract due to fundamental changes. The domestic fuel oil spot has been consolidating on the platform of 2800 yuan for nearly 2 months. The future will have a clear guiding role in any breakthrough in that direction. If Singapore's fuel oil can follow up the strong crude oil breakthrough of 265 US dollars, the domestic price is likely to set a new high this year.
This week, the price of fuel oil futures regained its upward momentum and approached the high level this year in the context of the strong international crude oil prices. The main contract moved from August to September, and the September contract's heavy volume rose to close at 2,762 yuan (tons, the same below), which is only one step away from the contract’s highest record of 2,780 yuan this year. International crude oil and Singapore fuel oil maintained a strong upward trend, fundamentally inhibiting the downside of domestic prices. New York crude oil prices quickly out of the finishing area under the stimulation of the IEA bullish report, and regained its advantages in technology.