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In terms of the LED industry cycle, after the deep reshuffle in 2015 and 2016, the supply-side reform has been relatively full, and the LED industry is already in the S-type industry curve. The second wavelength of cattle is opened: From the upstream supply of LEDs, the industry capacity The degree of concentration is accelerating, and higher industry barriers are formed, and the disorderly capacity expansion is curbed. At the same time, the downstream application of the LED industry will experience a turning point in the 2015 and 2016 after the deep reshuffle, in the lighting, small Driven by new applications such as pitch display, the industry is expected to start a new round of growth. In terms of the LED industry cycle, after the deep reshuffle in 2015 and 2016, the supply-side reform has been relatively full, and the LED industry is already in the S-type industry curve. The second wavelength of cattle is opened: From the upstream supply of LEDs, the industry capacity The concentration is accelerating and the higher industrial barriers are formed, and the disorderly capacity expansion is curbed. At the same time, the downstream application innovation drives the whole industry chain to flourish. Throughout the development of the LED industry, landscape lighting, LCD backlighting, outdoor lighting Applications such as outdoor large-screen displays have become the driving force for rapid development of the industry at different stages. Standing at the current point of view, the increasing penetration of LED lighting, the intelligent networking of LED lighting, and the accelerated burst of small-pitch display are becoming the main driving force for the new round of LED industry demand. China's chip products are heading for the world. Foreign chip faucets hand over some product orders to domestic enterprises for processing. According to LEDinside data, domestic chip exports accounted for 9.6% of the total domestic chip output in 2016, up 1.6 percentage points year-on-year. In 2016, the output value of the chip increased by more than 10% year-on-year. Supply side: In 2016, LED upstream supply side reform was full, and the degree of concentration accelerated. The LED industry chain supply side reform has been relatively full. According to the data, in 2015, there were more than 20%, and about 4,000 LED related companies withdrew from the market. Take chip companies as an example. According to the data, the market share of the top five chip companies in the top five in 2014 has increased to over 67%, and it is expected to exceed 70% in 2016. According to industry insiders, after a round of reshuffle, the target of government subsidies has changed: at present, only subsidies for those companies that can become leaders have been subsidized, and subsidies have been narrowed. Some small and medium-sized enterprises are less likely to want subsidies. . After the subsidies were abolished in 2015, the investment in new production line machines of enterprises increased greatly, and many small enterprises could not afford them. In 2016, international chip manufacturers have reduced their production capacity or canceled the expansion plan. The regional advantages of domestic chip leading companies continue to be highlighted. Jingdian and CREE have cut production several times since the second half of the year, and by the beginning of the 16th year, they have reduced production by 25%. Sanan Optoelectronics terminated 47 MOCVD procurement contracts to Germany at the beginning of the year, and Samsung and LG shut down some production capacity. In the new century, there has been no expansion plan for two to three years, and no new machine plans have been added. At the same time, due to the Chinese government's cancellation of MOCVD subsidies in 2015, the pressure on capital investment in new production line machines has become more prominent, and the impulse of domestic small and medium-sized chip manufacturers to expand production has fallen sharply. Demand side: In 2016, LED lighting penetration rate increased rapidly, and smart lighting and small pitch detonated new hot spots. In 2015, LED lighting penetration rate was only 27.2%. In 2016, the global LED lighting market continued to grow rapidly. From the perspective of downstream applications, the general lighting market, which is the main LED application direction, has a global penetration rate of 27.2% (Digitimes) in 2015. It is expected that the penetration rate will exceed 31.3% in 2016, and the global market will reach 34.6 billion US dollars. The 2017 penetration rate is expected. It can exceed 36%, and the market scale is growing faster than 10%. LED lighting is intelligent and networked, and the space is increased by more than 1.3 times. According to Philips, the value of lighting ranges from single to interconnected intelligent LED lighting systems and lighting services, with a market space of 65 billion euros, a 130% increase from the global market of 30 billion dollars in 2015. As early as 2012, Philips launched the HUE series of intelligent lighting products, featuring user-friendly functions such as time-limited switches, theme changes, application reminders, and a good user experience. Obviously high. Therefore, smart lighting will be the first to penetrate the high-end home lighting market, thereby improving the overall civilian LED lighting penetration rate. In the next 10 years, LED light sources will be expected to completely replace all traditional light sources. Since the global median luminous efficiency of LED lighting has been 130~150lm/w, the highest luminous efficiency has been developed to 300lm/w, which is significantly higher than traditional incandescent lamps (15lm/w), halogen lamps (20lm/w), fluorescent lamps ( Traditional light sources such as 85lm/w), as the light efficiency continues to increase, the cost of chips and other consumables declines, and the scale effect drives the overall cost of the lamp to continue to decline. It is expected to replace all traditional light sources in the next 10 years. The small-pitch LED display market is growing at a high speed, with a compound growth of over 24% in the next five years. With the continuous maturity of LED packaging technology, the size of packaged devices is gradually shrinking, and small-pitch display screens are moving indoors from the outdoors, gradually replacing the existing DLP and LCD splicing screens, becoming another major killer in the field of large-screen display. application. Strategic point of view: In 2017, LED chips are in short supply, optimistic about the future development of the industry. In summary, the LED chip production capacity in 2017 is about 83.28 million pieces, and the demand is about 92.35 million pieces. The overall LED chip industry is growing steadily. Any industry's production capacity is slightly higher than demand is the steady-state characteristics of supply and demand balance, while LED demand still has a steady growth of 12.5% ​​in 2017, and supply is greater than demand, so the LED chip industry is in short supply, and industry performance is expected to grow steadily.