The "Statistics" also revealed that last year's global oil production fell for the first time since 2002, and there has been no significant change in the world's proven oil reserves. The current mining rate is sufficient for more than 41 years.
This is the fourth time that BP has launched this influential energy statistics publication in China since 2005.
The longest duration high oil price period This period's "Statistics" data shows that despite the financial market began to turbulence in August last year, the world's economic growth in 2007 is still strong, and continues to drive global energy consumption. World primary energy consumption increased by 2.4% in 2007, a slight slowdown from 2006, but it is still the fifth consecutive year higher than the average of the past decade.
“This year, the high international energy prices that have been operating at high levels have made sustainable energy consumption and sustainable economic growth even more remarkable. However, sustainable energy consumption and economic growth are global issues. Therefore, it is To solve it globally.†Dr. De Keri, vice president of BP Group and president of the Chinese company, pointed out yesterday that the only way to cope with this common challenge lies in cooperation. At the company level, they have noticed the need to establish new types of partnerships and partnerships in areas such as commercialization of clean energy and research and development of new technologies.
It is worth noting that oil prices have continued to rise and have so far exceeded six years. According to data from BP 1861, this is also the record longest period of high oil prices.
"This year's "Statistics" clearly shows that the market is playing a role, consumers and producers respond to changing oil prices when conditions permit, but in many places, policies have economically intervened due to market mechanisms. Reasonable upstream resources have become difficult. In addition, in some countries, government subsidies have allowed consumers to stay out of the impact of rising oil prices, said Christopher Group chief economist Christopher Ruhl.
Global oil production has fallen for the first time since 2002. According to statistics, in 2007, the average spot price of Brent crude oil was US$72.39 per barrel, an increase of 11%. Last year, the price of oil rose steadily, from the beginning of the mid-January to 50 US dollars and soared to more than 96 US dollars at the end of the year. During this period, the temporary decline in U.S. refining capacity led the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to trade below Brent for the first time since 1979. At the same time, the spread of heavy oil and high sulfur crude oil continues to be high, indicating that the refining capacity still needs to be improved.
However, global oil consumption last year increased by only 1.1%, or 1 million barrels per day, slightly lower than the average of the past decade. Consumption in the oil export regions of the Middle East, South America and Central America and Africa accounts for two-thirds of the growth in global oil consumption. Oil consumption in the Asia-Pacific region grew by 2.3%, basically in line with the historical average, although oil consumption growth in China and Japan was below average, and some emerging economies showed strong growth. Consumption in the OECD countries fell by 0.9%, reducing nearly 400,000 barrels per day.
It is worth noting that global oil production fell by 0.2% in 2007, which is 130,000 barrels per day, the first decline since 2002. Affected by the continuous reduction of output in November 2006 and February 2007, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ output in 2007 decreased by 350,000 barrels per day.
In addition, the growth of oil production outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries last year was weak and only increased by more than 200,000 barrels per day. Output of OECD countries fell for the fifth consecutive year. Production in the former Soviet Union increased by nearly 500,000 barrels per day, and output in Azerbaijan and Russia increased by more than 200,000 barrels per day.
Global oil proved reserves have not changed substantially in 2007 - at a level of 1.24 trillion barrels - at a current mining rate sufficient for more than 41 years. In addition. According to the more complete data received, the global proven oil reserves in 2006 were revised upwards by 31 billion barrels.
The speculative factors behind high oil prices are even more apparent According to BP's "Statistics" released yesterday, global oil consumption increased by only 1.1% last year, which is lower than the average of the past decade, while oil prices have risen by 11%. In the eyes of the industry, this to a certain extent also reflects the speculative power behind high oil prices.
“The speculation factor is even more apparent this year.†Wu Jiandong, academic advisor and energy expert for “China Reform,†told the reporter yesterday. Although BP’s statistics are arguably the most authoritative statistical data of commercial energy in the world, they are mainly described as The energy production and consumption structure with oil prices in the range of $50-100 last year, and using the average of last year, cannot fully reflect the situation under this year's oil price of $100-160, and therefore cannot be used as an existing energy structure. route map. "In fact, this year's energy structure is not on the same level as last year. Different levels of energy structure will have a capititive effect on the way energy is produced and used."
The analysis data he provided to this newspaper shows that the current global demand for crude oil is between 85 and 87 million barrels per day, and the supply is basically maintained at this level, and the world's major oil fields also have the ability to increase supply. The amount of oil futures trades in the world is as high as 80 billion to 110 billion U.S. dollars, which is already 8-10 times the actual amount of oil trade. "The two are very asymmetrical, from which you can see how big the power of speculation is."
“In the long run, the trend of oil prices depends on the monetary policy of the US dollar and the euro, as well as on the functioning of the technological innovation system in the energy sector. A major technological revolution in the primary energy sector may have a huge impact on oil prices,†said Wu Jiandong.
In response, he believes that China needs to start a large-scale domestic oil and gas production mechanism, gradually lift its monopoly on oil and gas exploration and exploitation, and introduce large-scale funds to participate in oil and gas production in order to reduce the scale of imports. "If you increase upstream production, China can reduce 30-50 million tons of oil imports a year, which will give a heavy blow to speculation on international oil prices."
Rapid growth in renewable energy consumption Compared with oil, global natural gas consumption increased more significantly last year. Statistics show that in 2007, natural gas consumption in the world increased by 3.1%, which exceeded the average growth rate in the past. The winter and the demand for natural gas power generation have led to a growth in natural gas consumption in the United States that accounts for nearly half of the world’s growth. China’s natural gas consumption rose by 19.9%, the second largest increase in the world. Affected by the warm winter, consumption in the European Union fell for the second consecutive year, a decrease of 1.6%.
At the same time, natural gas production increased by 2.4% in 2007. As with consumption, the United States is the world’s largest natural gas supply growth country, with an increase of 4.3%, the largest increase since 1984. The EU’s output fell by 6.4%, of which the UK’s decline ranked the world’s highest for the second consecutive year – natural gas production fell by 9.5%. In the former Soviet Union, natural gas production in other regions except Russia was significantly increased, which greatly offset the small decline in Russian production. Natural gas production in China and Qatar increased by 18.4% and 17.9% respectively, ranking second and third in the world.
In addition to oil and gas, in 2007, coal became the fastest growing fuel for the fourth consecutive year, and global coal consumption increased by 4.5%. Nuclear power production fell by 2% last year, setting a record of the largest decline. However, more than 90% of the reduction in nuclear power comes from Germany and Japan, which closed the world’s largest nuclear power plant due to the earthquake. Hydropower generation grew by 1.7%, slightly higher than the average of the past decade. The increase in installed capacity in China and Brazil partially offset the decline in hydropower generation due to drought in the United States and southern Europe.
Finally, renewable energy still accounts for only a small part of global energy consumption. However, in 2007, most renewable energy sources experienced rapid growth. Ethanol production increased by 27.8%. Global wind and solar installed capacity increased by 28.5% and 37%, respectively, which is consistent with the historical growth trend.
China's primary energy consumption growth slows down According to BP World Energy Statistics 2008 released by the world-renowned energy company BP on the 8th, in 2007, China’s primary energy consumption growth rate was 7.7%, which is the lowest annual growth rate since 2002. .
According to statistics, China’s total primary energy consumption in 2007 was 1.634 billion tons of oil equivalent, accounting for 16.8% of the world’s total primary energy consumption.
In 2007, the total primary energy consumption in the world was 110.993 billion tons of oil equivalent, which was an increase of 2.4% compared with the previous year, which was slower than the growth rate of 2.7% in 2006 but still higher than the average of the past 10 years. Although China's primary energy consumption growth has slowed down, it still accounted for half of the global increase in primary energy consumption that year.
According to BP's statistics, China's oil consumption in 2007 was 368 million tons, an increase of 4.1% year-on-year, accounting for 9.3% of the world's total oil consumption. China produced 886.7 million tons of oil, an increase of 1.6% year-on-year, accounting for 4.8% of the world's total oil production.
In 2007, China's natural gas consumption and output growth ranked second in the world. Coal consumption increased by 7.9% year-on-year to 1.311 billion tons of oil equivalent, accounting for 41.3% of the world's total coal consumption. Coal production was 1,986 million tons, which represented a year-on-year increase of 7.0%.
The accelerating increase in the prices of traditional fossil fuels such as petroleum and coal has stimulated the rapid development of renewable energy. In 2007, global ethanol production increased by 27.8%, and global wind and solar installed capacity increased by 28.5% and 37% respectively. However, renewable energy still accounts for only a small part of the total global energy consumption.
According to BP's statistical report, in 2007, primary energy consumption in the United States increased by 1.7% year-on-year. India’s energy consumption increased by 6.8% year-on-year, the increase after China and the United States. During the same period, the EU’s primary energy consumption fell by 2.2%, of which Germany’s energy consumption fell by 5.6%, the highest drop in the world.
16.8%
According to statistics, China’s total primary energy consumption in 2007 was 1.634 billion tons of oil equivalent, accounting for 16.8% of the world’s total primary energy consumption.
Just as the international oil price approached 150 US dollars, the transnational energy giant BP yesterday released "BP World Energy Statistics 2008" (hereinafter referred to as "Statistics") in Beijing. It shows that global oil consumption increased by 1.1% last year, slightly lower than the average of the past decade. Among them, China's oil consumption growth is lower than the average level; but oil prices have increased by 11%, indicating that there is a huge speculation behind high oil prices. power.