On the one hand, lithium giant Ningde era IPO 24 days rushed meeting, refresh the IPO will be recorded; on the other hand, Jianruiwo can re-release the shareholder reduction announcement, while predicting a loss of more than 300 million yuan in the first quarter of this year. It is important to know that the company is ranked third in domestic power battery installed capacity in 2017, second only to the Ningde Times and BYD, and it earned 254 million in the first quarter of last year. When the adjustment of technology routes and the subsidy policy for domestic new energy policies were gradually withdrawn, the power battery companies shuffled their efforts. Last year, not only the Ningde era and BYD seats were exchanged, but many SMEs also suffered a decline in their performance. Battery company hit by double-sided attacks Buffett said that only when the tide receded did he know who was swimming naked. Once in full swing, the new energy automobile industry ushered in a big reshuffle after the subsidy ebbs. On the evening of April 9th, Gerry Vernon, who was in a debt crisis, said that the company’s loss rate increased significantly, mainly due to a decrease in revenue due to a decrease in orders from its wholly-owned subsidiary, Shenzhen Waterma Battery Co., Ltd., while the product’s gross profit margin declined. Gerry Vernon and Wattmar said that there was misjudgment of the capital chain breakage incident and the impact on the market in 2017, and that there was no timely control of scale expansion, resulting in unsuccessful repayment. This opened the tip of the iceberg. Formerly known as Fortune Fire, Gerry Vernon acquired 100% equity in Watermar in 2016 and entered lithium iron phosphate new energy vehicle power batteries and automotive starter power supplies. However, the new energy auto industry is generally highly dependent on subsidies. Subsidy retreat causes the profit of battery companies to decline. In 2017, BYD’s net profit also decreased by 19.51% year-on-year. In the first quarter of this year, it is expected to decline by 75.24%-91.75%. The power battery is the core component of the new energy vehicle. The cost accounts for 30%-50% of the entire vehicle, and the subsidy will be reduced. The power battery company will also have to bear the pressure of price reduction. On the one hand, customers put pressure on battery prices, while on the other hand, upstream suppliers are madly increasing prices. The situation of battery companies can be imagined. Even in the Ningde era, which accounted for nearly half of the sales of triple lithium batteries in 2017, the gross profit rate of its main products power battery system for 2015-2017 was 41.40%, 44.84%, and 35.25%, respectively, which decreased significantly in 2017. Today, these two factors still plague power battery manufacturers: First, the price of raw materials soars, among which the most expensive cathode material, cobalt, currently reaches 600,000 yuan per ton, and is known as “cobalt grandma†in the industry. Second, the state subsidy retreats the slope. In 2018, the subsidies for new energy buses will be reduced by about 40%, and will be formally implemented on June 12 of this year. In 2017, the battery capacity with an energy density of less than 105Wh/kg accounted for 50.7%, and this part will have no subsidies this year, which will promote the accelerated reshuffling of the power battery industry. It is expected that the new energy subsidies will be fully withdrawn in 2020, and competition with international giants in the absence of subsidies will be a major test for domestic battery companies. Power Battery Replacement The data shows that the top five global power battery sales in 2017 were Ningde, Matsushita Electric, BYD, Waterma and LG Chemical, with sales of 11.84 GWh, 10 GWh, 7.2 GWh, 5.5 GWh, and 4.5 GWh, respectively. Overseas, Panasonic is Japan's power battery leader. LG and Samsung are South Korea's power battery dominators. They have huge scale advantages and they have a leading position in battery technology and automation. In 2017, shipments of power batteries in the Ningde era increased by 73%, crossed Panasonic and won the industry's top position in the world. Judging from the installed capacity of power batteries that can better reflect the market share, the Ningde era in 2017 was 10.4 GWh, which is a monopoly nearly 30% of the market. The company had a valuation of 130 billion yuan at the time of its issuance and was the first player in the market for speed and valuation. In 2016, it was the No. 1 power battery in China and the second largest in the world. With the sudden emergence of the Ningde era, its performance in 2017 has been declining. However, due to the rapid increase in power battery capacity and the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles, the price of power battery systems in the Ningde era was significantly reduced from 2.28 yuan/Wh in 2015 to 1.41 yuan/Wh in 2017, with a cumulative decline. It reached 38.26%. The net profit after deduction in the Ningde era also fell from 2.96 billion yuan in 2016 to 2.47 billion yuan in 2017. At present, the mainstream technology route for new energy passenger vehicles is ternary batteries (Sanyuan is also the main technical route in the Ningde era), that is, lithium batteries with lithium nickel-cobalt-manganese oxide or nickel-cobalt-aluminate as cathode materials, cobalt as Stabilizers are indispensable. Sanyuan Lithium has a high energy density and can provide longer life, and by 2017, the triple lithium battery pack price has been reduced to a minimum of 1.4-1.5 yuan/Wh, which is basically the same as lithium iron phosphate. The rise of Sanyuan Battery is an important reason for BYD in the Ningde era. The days of SMEs are even harder When the boss of the industry switched positions, other small and medium-sized companies in China’s power battery also appreciated the industry’s cooling and heating—the largest of which was Waterma. In 2017, the installed capacity was only 2.3GWh. This company ranks fourth with last year and is also a listed company. Guoxuan Hi-Tech has a gap of only 0.4 GWh in the installed capacity of mobile lithium batteries. This is even a fraction of the capacity of both parties in the construction of power batteries – Waltmar 2020 The annual planned production capacity is 20GWh, while Guoxuan Hi-Tech has a higher target of 30GWh. Guoxuan Hi-tech Co., Ltd., which specializes in new materials for iron-lithium power batteries, realized a net profit of 920 million yuan attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2017, a year-on-year decline of 10.73%. Mainly engaged in the lithium battery business Chengfei integration, 2017 operating income of 2 billion yuan, a year-on-year drop of 9.04%; attributable to shareholders of listed companies net profit of -734.3208 million, a year-on-year decrease of 156.16%, while the company's net profit in 2016 137 million yuan. This is the first time in 10 years since Chengfei’s integration. Chengfei integrated production of lithium iron phosphate battery, the main customer is a new energy passenger car, which is affected by the policy of greater slope than passenger cars. Power battery excess capacity The data shows that in 2017, the installed capacity of new energy vehicle power batteries in China was 36.27Gwh, an increase of about 20% compared with the same period of last year, which was far away from the 50-60GWh estimated by the industry in early 2017; and the lithium battery technology route has undergone tremendous changes. The market share of power battery exceeds 44%, which has doubled from 2016. This is also something that could not be expected from the likes of Kennedy. On the other hand, the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles in China reached nearly 800,000 vehicles last year, an increase of 50% compared with 2016. Among them, the output of new energy passenger vehicles reached 478,000 vehicles, which increased by more than 200,000 units year-on-year. Obviously, the growth rate of the installed capacity of power batteries cannot keep up with the growth of the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles, because the production and sales structure of new energy vehicles has changed, and the proportion of passenger cars and special vehicles has risen rapidly. Under the situation of the new energy bus market, the new energy passenger vehicles that continue to make rapid progress have become the core of the growth of power battery performance. At the same time, the power battery capacity has been severely surplus. It is reported that in 2017, the entire power battery industry in China will have a capacity of more than 200GWh, and the installed capacity is expected to reach 100GWh by 2020. The Ningde Times prospectus also reflected this point. In 2017, the lithium-ion battery capacity was 17.09GWh in Ningde, the output was 12.91GWh, and the capacity utilization rate was 75.54%. In 2015 and 2016, it was 96.92% and 92.37%, respectively. For two consecutive years of decline, the decline rate of 20%. This may be the company's response. In China, BYD is the most threatening contender in the era of Ningde. This former battery overlord, the shipping scale was overtaken by the Ningde era last year. In order to recapture the battery leader, BYD made two important adjustments: First, adjust the battery technology line. From the beginning of 2017, BYD will start using lithium-ion batteries on its passenger vehicle business, and pure-electric models produced in 2018 and later will also use three-cell lithium batteries. However, battery companies such as Ningde Times and Guoxuan Hi-Tech also began to expand their ternary battery capacity. The second is to split the power battery business into an independent operation and supply it to other new energy vehicle companies. In the Ningde era has won nearly 30% of the domestic power battery market share - when BYD is double the time, BYD can return to the first, will be the future of China's power battery Aspect.
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