Macroeconomic development is faster Finally, there are uncertainties as to the increase in corporate orders, the effective release of production capacity and the digestion of inventories. In this regard, the tire industry's operating ideas mainly in the following directions. Strengthen technological innovation of enterprises, upgrade core technology level, work hard to develop new products, increase the added value of product science and technology, promote the upgrading of products, change the mode of industrial development, and gradually transform products from low to medium-end to high-end; Pay attention to the construction of marketing channels, actively develop terminal networks, enhance the advantages of marketing channels, explore the domestic sales market, and expand the market share of products. At the same time, strengthen technical services, increase customer value, promote product sales, and stimulate production development. Promote the adjustment of product structure, optimize the product mix of the company, and enhance product competitive advantage. Strengthen the fine management of the enterprise, strive to reduce manufacturing costs, and increase the cost-effectiveness of the product. Soprano Ukulele,Flight Travel Ukulele,Ukulele Fender Soprano,Ukulele Ohana Soprano Shandong Changyun Musical Instruments Co., Ltd. , https://www.cyukulele.com
Economists believe that in 2013, the world economy will still be in post-crisis adjustment period, economic growth is relatively fragile, and the recovery power is not strong. Stimulated by quantitative easing monetary policy, the global economy will recover, with a growth rate of around 3.6%. China’s economy has stabilized and positive factors have further increased. The growth momentum has been strengthened and it has shown a trend of recovery. The synergy of consumption, investment, and exports will enable China's economy to maintain steady and rapid development. It is expected that China's GDP growth rate will be around 8.1% next year.
From an international perspective, first of all, quantitative easing monetary policy has prompted the slow recovery of the world economy. The United States, the European Union and other advanced economies have successively implemented quantitative easing monetary policies, which are conducive to stabilizing the financial markets, promoting the development of the manufacturing industry, and boosting consumer confidence. With the increase in external demand, China's export growth will gradually rise.
Second, the global manufacturing cycle stabilized, and the PMI index (Purchasing Managers Index) generally improved. The overall commodity prices showed an upward trend. Therefore, it is expected that the global economy will gradually recover and the growth rate will increase. According to the forecast of the International Monetary Fund, the global economic growth rate in 2013 was 3.6%, 0.3 percentage points higher than the previous year.
From the domestic point of view, on the one hand, the government has adopted the “steady growth†stimulus measures to take effect. The increase in infrastructure investment and the stabilization of the real estate market, and the increase in investment growth, will effectively stimulate China’s economic growth and related industries.
On the other hand, the central bank continued to implement a stable and loose monetary policy and maintain a modest increase in the size of social financing. At the same time, liquidity is injected into the market through quantitative tools, and financial support for the real economy is increased.
In addition, as the income of urban and rural residents increases, the consumption environment continues to improve, and residents’ consumption has risen against the market. The retail sales of consumer goods and consumer confidence index have gradually increased. The consumption demand for the economy will gradually increase, and the contribution of final consumption to GDP will increase.
The fourth is the stabilization of the industrial economy. The rising trend of the industry is taking shape and will maintain a sustained and rapid growth. It is expected that the growth rate of industrial value above designated size will increase by about 11% in 2013, an increase of 1 percentage point over the previous year. The contribution rate of industrial economy to China's GDP growth will increase.
The automotive industry grows slowly
In all aspects, China's auto market will recover in 2013 and enter a low-growth track. It is expected that the annual automobile production and sales volume will reach 20 million, with an increase rate of 5% to 6%.
According to the historical analysis of the global auto market, after a high growth, the market will enter a period of stable and rapid development with a duration of approximately 10 years. In terms of quantity, the current number of people in China’s autos is about 86, and the overall level is still relatively low. In the future, the growth rate of automobile production and sales will return to more than 10%.
China is still in the middle of modernization and industrialization will continue to advance. Urbanization is an important driving force for economic growth. At present, the urbanization rate in China is only 51.3%, and there is still much room for growth. With the continued advancement of urbanization, the construction area of ​​urban areas is continuously expanding, which is conducive to the gradual recovery of the growth rate of the automobile market.
In addition, the growth rate of the automobile industry is closely related to the growth rate of the macro economy. It is expected that China's GDP will maintain a growth rate of around 8.1% in 2013. Under the influence and influence of the macro economy, the Chinese automobile market will recover, and the growth of automobile production and sales by 5%-6% can be expected.
Moreover, with the gradual recovery of the world economy, the international auto market will pick up, China's auto exports will be further expanded; the country will strengthen the infrastructure construction, have a pulling effect on heavy trucks; the rigid demand for cars will be released, passenger cars will remain stable Fast growth.
Tire industry is doing better
The development of the tire industry's production and operation is closely related to the macroeconomic situation, the development of the automobile industry and the transportation of passengers and cargo on the highway. With the gradual recovery of the global economy and a slight rebound in the growth rate, the low-speed growth of the automobile industry and the road passenger and cargo transportation business have gradually increased. In 2013, the tire industry’s production and operation prospects have generally improved, but there are still some in the course of development. Certainty.
According to industry experts, the national tire production in the next year will be about 496 million, an increase of 6% year-on-year. Among them, the radial tire output was about 445 million, an increase of 8% year-on-year, and the radialization rate was 89%.
The reasons for the rise in market demand can be summarized as the following.
First of all, from the perspective of the supporting market, with the automobile industry from micro-growth to low-speed growth, production and sales volume will continue to increase, and tire matching demand will increase.
Secondly, from the perspective of the replacement market, with the recovery of China's economic growth, the number of car ownership will continue to increase, and the volume of road freight, passenger traffic, and road freight turnover will increase significantly. All these factors will drive replacement market demand.
Thirdly, from the perspective of the international market, with the slow recovery of the world economy, the international automobile industry has rebounded, the impact of the US “special security case†has been eliminated, the international market demand will show an upward trend, and tire exports will increase. .
The uncertainty in the production and operation of tire companies mainly includes the following aspects:
First, the European debt crisis, external economic environment, and international market demand are uncertain;
Second, there are uncertainties in the changes in international exchange rates, the magnitude of RMB appreciation, and the export costs of foreign trade;
Third, there is still uncertainty about the stability and rebound of the domestic economy and the duration of the rebound.
The implementation of brand promotion strategy, speed up the cultivation of independent brands, and gradually expand the brand awareness, increase brand influence, enhance brand competitiveness, and then stimulate the rapid development of production and management.
It is also necessary to seize the opportunities for industry consolidation, promote mergers and acquisitions among enterprises, expand production capacity at low cost, and then increase industrial concentration, enhance the competitiveness of enterprises, and obtain economies of scale.
Adhere to the trade diversification strategy, consolidate the traditional market, develop new markets, and explore the ASEAN market. Utilizing preferential policies for foreign trade exports, efforts are made to expand tire exports and ease the pressure on the domestic market.
To develop "green tires" that are energy-saving and environmentally friendly, accelerate the industrialization of "green tires", and promote the listing of "green tires" to meet the needs of the European market. At the same time, to achieve "green manufacturing" to ease the pressure on resources, energy and the environment, and improve the economic, environmental and social benefits of the company.
Finally, we must establish a common natural rubber stabilization fund to form a stable natural rubber pricing mechanism. Both tire manufacturers and rubber suppliers do not expect the price of natural rubber to fluctuate. Tire companies should join forces to collect and store natural rubber, curb natural rubber prices, and maintain the stability of the rubber market.
Rubber market prices continue to decline
The supply and demand situation and price trend of natural rubber have attracted the attention of the market. The European debt crisis continued to ferment, and the global economy was weak. China's economy continued to decline. The growth of tire production and sales slowed down, resulting in an oversupply of natural rubber. Market prices continued to decline, and annual average prices fell more than 25% year-on-year.
From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, global natural rubber production in 2012 was 10.38 million tons, an increase of 3.6% year-on-year. The market demand has decreased. Therefore, the International Rubber Research Organization declared that due to the deterioration of the European debt crisis threatening global economic growth, the global demand for natural rubber continues to decline. Next year, natural rubber prices will continue to decline due to oversupply.
From the perspective of market demand, on the one hand, China’s economy regains its focus on the Soviet Union, GDP growth rate is about 8.1%, and the rate of recovery is not high, which will have no impact on the market demand for natural rubber.
On the other hand, due to the slow growth of the automobile industry, the production capacity of the tire industry is affected, and the inventory of finished products is high, and the market demand for natural rubber is weak.
Affected by low import prices and weak demand from the downstream industries, whether it is full of natural rubber stocks in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone or natural rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, it will take several months for high inventory to be gradually digested.
In addition, tire companies attach importance to independent technological innovation, adjust and optimize raw material formulas, promote lightweighting of tires, reduce the proportion of natural rubber, and further reduce the market demand for natural rubber.
From the perspective of market supply, with the expansion of the planting area of ​​rubber-producing countries, rubber harvesting period will gradually come, and natural rubber production will gradually increase. Even if it is influenced by the climate, supply and demand are roughly balanced from the situation over the years.
Although Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia, the main producers of natural rubber, reached an agreement to reduce the export volume of 300,000 tons of natural rubber, to ease the downward trend in rubber prices. However, they still raised their expectations for natural rubber production, exports and consumption.
Also, synthetic rubber and natural rubber are alternatives. With the expansion of the production capacity of synthetic rubber and the increasing use of alternatives, this also leads to an increase in the supply of natural rubber.
The factors affecting the price and level of natural rubber can be summarized in five aspects.
Supply and demand are the decisive factors that affect the price of the rubber market. From this factor, the oversupply of natural rubber poses a large downward pressure on its market price.
The production cost is an important factor affecting the market price. From this point of view, the production cost of natural rubber does not change much and remains at around 17,500 yuan/ton, which has a certain supporting effect on the market price of natural rubber.
The supply and price level of synthetic rubber has an impact on the market price of natural rubber. This influencing factor poses downward pressure on the market price of natural rubber.
Loose monetary policy and increased market liquidity have a slightly greater impact on the market price of natural rubber, and have a supportive effect on the market price of natural rubber.
In addition, the release of the inventory of the main rubber producing areas, the inventory of the Qingdao Bonded Area, and the stock exchange of the Shanghai Futures Exchange will all affect the market price of natural rubber.
Taken together, the relationship between supply and demand for natural rubber will continue to outpace supply in 2013. Market prices are generally weak, and prices tend to be stable. They are expected to fluctuate around 23,500 yuan per ton.